Sweden can help shape a future of sustainable prosperity
Change is often unsettling. In these turbulent times, rocked by geopolitical tensions, overlapping crises, accelerating climate change and transformative technological advances, one pressing question recurs: Is there hope?
Sweden can help shape a future of sustainable prosperity
Change is often unsettling. In these turbulent times, rocked by geopolitical tensions, overlapping crises, accelerating climate change and transformative technological advances, one pressing question recurs:
Is there hope?
As the legendary singer Neil Young proclaimed last year:
Big change is coming
Coming right home to you
Big change is coming
You know what you gotta to do
Big change is coming
Could be bad, and it could be good.
The world is changing profoundly. To understand how our Sweden should respond, we must understand not only Sweden’s place in the world, but also humanity’s place on Earth.
Sweden is part of the biosphere, that thin layer of our planet, barely two miles high, in which life exists and evolves. It is a truly unique place in an immeasurably vast universe. Life flows in us and through us. Our bodies are constantly renewed by some 20 chemical elements: water sustains us; microorganisms support our physical and mental health and regulate our immune systems; our guts host live bacteria that communicate with our brains, their origins reaching back to the time before the Earth’s atmosphere contained oxygen.
We are interwoven with all life in the biosphere. The Sun is our shining star; plants oxygenate the air we breathe; forests reduce the risk of flooding and evaporate water into the atmosphere that becomes rain for agriculture worldwide. Fertile soils and healthy oceans provide the nutritious food we all depend on. Green spaces support our mental well-being. The world’s seas, forests and soil absorb roughly half of humanity’s carbon dioxide emissions, while biodiversity acts as insurance against extreme weather events and other climate risks.
The biosphere sustains our lives and our quality of life. At the same time, new scientific discoveries are deepening our understanding of these remarkable dynamics. This is an exciting time for science, with new regenerative technologies emerging in fields such as medicine, agriculture and industry. Advances in synthetic biology are helping to cure diseases, improve food production and the materials we use, and break down the pollutants we cause. These innovations together deepen our sense of wonder, humility and respect for the complexities and possibilities of life.
The remarkable progress of the post-war era was made possible by access to cheap energy, derived from the plants and animals of distant ages. Swedish physician and statistician Hans Rosling’s and the Stockholm-based Gapminder Foundation have shown us how development, health, life expectancy, cooperation, progress, prosperity and globalisation went hand in hand. Sweden was a pioneer in welfare, consensus-building, democracy and innovation in a world that had expanded rapidly, sustained by a vibrant biosphere with a stable climate.
Today, however, we are leaving the Holocene, an exceptionally favourable epoch for humanity, during which agriculture emerged, civilisations flourished, and the foundations of our modern globalised world were laid. At a rapid pace, we are hurtling into the Anthropocene, an age in which human activity has become a planetary force, dominating and shaping the functioning of the Earth. This marks a profound shift in the conditions for progress and development – we must now learn to engage and skilfully navigate a new and even more complex reality.
The major challenges of the Anthropocene – converging crises, a changing climate and the straining of planetary boundaries – are not simply about saving the environment. They are about creating the best possible conditions for human development and prosperity in an interconnected world. Ultimately, they are about securing the future of coming generations within the living biosphere.
In the Anthropocene, crises occur simultaneously and reinforce one another: environmental change, water scarcity, armed conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic instability. Humanity has rarely existed in a world with a global average temperature more than two degrees above pre-industrial levels. As we breach planetary boundaries, the safe margin for manoeuvre to which we have become accustomed – the conditions that have enabled progress, prosperity and a thriving biosphere – will face ever bigger challenges.
The Anthropocene demands a fundamental transformation of how we live and work, making resilience – the capacity to live and thrive amid change and uncertainty – an indispensable capability. Decades of research show that resilience can turn crises into opportunities. It gives us the flexibility to makes choices and adapt, creating the conditions for a transition towards progressive, innovative and prosperous future within the planet’s boundaries.
A small and innovative country like Sweden needs to be at the forefront of this shift towards a bright future in which technology, the economy and society work in harmony with the biosphere. This transition holds immense potential and creates new opportunities for innovation and competitiveness, as many have already realised. The shift towards fossil-free industrial processes, transport and energy systems is in full swing. Research and innovation are advancing in areas such as new materials, regenerative production and the circular economy, developing technologies that enhance, strengthen and revitalise the biosphere, rather than undermine it. Through advances like these, we can meet the challenges ahead and embrace the opportunities before us.
The direction is clear. Sweden wants to play a leading role – and Sweden can play a leading role. But this requires a clear vision, a national strategy and consistent, long-term policymaking.
As we enter the Anthropocene, the AI revolution – perhaps the most disruptive technological development in human history – is unfolding. How will planetary changes and AI advances interact, and how should we assess the risks and opportunities? It is still difficult to understand how they will intersect and combine, but together they are already creating a fundamentally new planetary landscape.
These are extraordinary times – a systemic shift for humanity, a large-scale cultural evolution beyond the Industrial Revolution, towards a new era, perhaps a New Renaissance, the contours of which we can only begin to glimpse. As Neil Young sings:
Could be bad and it could be good.
History teaches us that shifts in our understanding of reality, in our worldviews and in the systems that shape our societies – natural features of periods of renaissance and renewal – inevitably create friction between the old and the new. Science is the most powerful means we have for investigating, interpreting and understanding the world, far surpassing faith and opinion as a basis for knowledge.
In times of disinformation and fake news, empirical evidence, free of partisan agendas, is more important than ever for navigating a complex world.
Science shows us that humankind does not merely live on the planet, it is interwoven with life in the biosphere. Medical science, for example, has shifted from viewing the body as a machine to regarding it as a complex, adaptive, living system – one that communicates through intricate signalling systems, networks and behaviours.
The realisation that a vibrant, living planet is a fundamental condition for the well-being and survival of human civilisation is increasingly permeating research and development. Economists are quantifying the value of living natural capital and highlighting the vital importance of this increasingly scarce resource as the foundation for prosperity and progress in the Anthropocene.
Sweden has long been a leader in this field, having hosted the first United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in 1972 and spearheaded a long series of important and consequential initiatives in the years since. Sweden has demonstrated leadership, not least by building trust internationally and acting as an honest broker to advance common solutions. The world has come to know the country as one that honours its commitments. It is high time to once again take up this role, to unite research, business and politics in a shared effort for a stronger Sweden within the EU, and for a better world.
Although institutions are under strain and some world leaders continue to base their policies on denial, the transition has already begun and is gaining momentum. The green transition is advancing across the Nordic region, the EU and every continent, increasingly broadening to encompass the natural capital and the dynamics of the biosphere.
Concepts such as “nature positive,” “nature-based solutions,” “nature-related opportunities” and a “liveable planet” are no longer confined environmental debates. They have become central considerations for companies and financial markets. Multilateral development banks like the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development increasingly recognize natural capital as a key factor for jobs, health, food security, economic growth, air and water quality, and resilience in the face of climate change and other systemic risks.
Decision-making in areas such as urban and regional planning, international cooperation and global conventions is increasingly based not only on the availability of natural resources, but also on the services ecosystems provide, such as climate regulation, clean water, fertile soils, and protection from extreme events. Since 2020, China has been calculating its gross ecosystem product alongside GDP to measure the economic value of the country’s ecosystem services at national and local levels, and to track changes over time.
Central banks around the world increasingly regard changes in climate and degradation of natural capital as risk factors for macroeconomic and financial stability. In the UK, national security assessments already recognise the links between the loss of global biodiversity, the decline of key ecosystems and societal risks. Similarly, actuaries are analysing the economic implications of tipping points within the biosphere and threshold effects leading up to them.
Companies and financial institutions worldwide are responding to Anthropocene risks and nature-related challenges, seeking to redirect financial flows from opportunities and outcomes that are bad for the biosphere to ones that are good for it. Science and business are collaborating to become guardians of the oceans, not least to promote sustainable seafood.
So-called ocean stewardship provides a new purpose, a new vision and new motivation.
Turbulent times are nothing new in human history. We know that they require us to stay the course, guided by strong, inclusive, democratic institutions. The transition is about recognising that future prosperity depends on technology, economy and society developing in harmony with the living planet. We need a shared narrative within which new business models, rules and markets can emerge – a new approach in which trust, respect, confidence and cooperation provide the foundation for meaningful progress.
This change is essential for our prosperity in the Anthropocene. The challenges are great, but the opportunities are also enormous. It is high time to accelerate the collaboration and mobilisation needed to create space for the innovation we require – innovation that is not only economically viable in the short term, but that, guided by care, humanity, and a long-term perspective, helps restore a thriving relationship between human civilisation and the living biosphere on which we depend.
Sweden is well prepared and offers fertile ground for a sustainable future. But the moment demands that we dare to demonstrate leadership, act as a strong, unifying force for international cooperation, and remain steadfast on the path towards sustainable development.
If we have the courage to shoulder that responsibility, we will be able to move towards a brighter future – for our country and for our living planet.
There is hope.
Carl Folke
For those interested:
Vetenskapen säger – om antropocen. Österblom, H., I. Riipinen, D. Kragic Jensfelt, D. Chen o C. Folke. 2025. Nr 8. Kungliga Vetenskapsakademien. https://www.kva.se/app/uploads/2026/11/vetenskapen-sager-om-antropocen-2025.pdf
Kursen: Tio Lektioner för ett Hållbart Näringsliv. Schultz, L. och E. Treijs. 2023. Natur & Kultur.
Our Future in the Anthropocene Biosphere – White paper for the Nobel Prize Summit 2021. Folke, C., S. Polasky, J. Rockström et al. 2021. Ambio 50: 834-869. https://doi10.1007/s13280-021-01544-8
Resilience Science Must-Knows: Nine Things Every Decision-Maker Should Know About Resilience. Norström A., C. Queiroz, M. Nyström et al. 2025. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Global Resilience Partnership, Future Earth, Stockholm, Sweden. http://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-projects/resilience-science-must-knows.html
AI for a Planet under Pressure. Galaz, V. and M. Schewenius (eds). 2025. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Stockholm. Report. Online: http://arxiv.org/abs/2510.24373.
Reboot Development: The Economics of a Livable Planet. Damania, R. et al. 2025. World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-2271-1
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Steffen, W., J. Rockström, K. Richardson et al. 2018. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 115:8252-8259. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115
Planetary Health Check 2025. https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/
